TMN
Vol.1 Number 2
, Spring 2004
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| An Analytical Approach to Building a Technology Development Envelope (TDE) for Roadmapping of Emerging Technologies |
Increasing global market competition is having a strong impact on the design and development of new products. To survive under this intense pressure, companies see R&D investment as a key solution. Planning investment in the right technologies will help companies support the future development of their new products.
In today’s environment, technologies are changing faster than ever. Companies have to keep an eye on the emergence of new technologies as they constantly monitor the development progress of existing technologies. The success of implementing technologies in new products can open windows of opportunity for companies to gain competitiveness.
However, managers of technology development divisions in companies often struggle with finding a proper way to analytically evaluate the impacts of those emerging technologies on a company’s objective.
To find the proper solution for these issues, the study began with understanding how emerging technologies replace existing technologies, how the future trend of an emerging technology can be captured, how the best emerging technologies can be identified in support of a company’s strategic objectives, how a company selects the technologies in which to invest for development, and how a company incorporates the results of its selected technology development path into its corporate strategic plan.
We then took a perspective approach and developed an analytical model which integrates the aspects of technology forecasting, identification, assessment, evaluation, and selection. The combination of the Delphi method and hierarchical decision modeling is applied in this research.
Through the quantitative analysis of this model, emerging technologies are evaluated over time with respect to a company’s objective. A technology with the highest value in each time period represents a company’s strongest preference for this technology compared with other technologies. The connection of technologies from one period to another indicates a path of technology development. The path connecting technologies that have the highest value in each time period is considered a “technology development envelope (TDE).”
The development of a TDE is designed to be completed through six model development steps. The flow of information to the model and within the model is shown in the figure below.
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Figure
1:
Information flow to and within the model
Model
Development
Strategic information regarding the list of potential emerging technologies, the estimated time of their occurrence, and the metrics describing the performance and physical characteristics of each technology are utilized to determine the value of each technology evaluated with respect to a company’s objective.
Obtaining this strategic information is always challenging due to the limited data availability inherent in emerging technologies. The Delphi method is applied in this research to obtain this strategic information through a process of expert opinion gathering.
The complex issues generally embedded in the evaluation of technologies are decomposed through the application of the hierarchical decision modeling concept. The comparative judgments provided by experts are analyzed to determine the relative priorities of components in each hierarchy.
The hierarchical model with four levels (objective, criteria, factors, and technology alternatives) is structured to decompose the complex decision problems and incorporate quantitative and qualitative aspects into the evaluation process. A new approach for applying a semi-absolute scale to quantify the values of technologies is proposed in conjunction with the determination of criteria priorities and the relative importance of factors under each criterion. The impact of technologies on a company’s objective is calculated as a composite index called Technology Value.
Research
Application
To demonstrate the development of a TDE, the research application is applied to emerging electronic cooling technologies for the identification and selection of a new thermal platform. Thermal management in electronics systems has become a crucial issue because future products, including high-density desktop computers, multi-processor rack mounted servers, and telecommunications cabinets, are reaching volumetric thermal densities beyond the limits of the current technology—direct air cooling.
This research application is a great example showing how the proposed model can be used to help technology managers decide which technology they should invest in, especially when the industry is in a technological transition period.
Currently, we are finalizing the data analysis, which is expected to be completed within the next few months. A portion of this research will be presented at the upcoming PICMET symposium in Seoul, South Korea.
In
conclusion, the research outcomes will contribute to the state of
knowledge by bringing technology and corporate strategy together.
Managers will be able to understand where technologies are going in
the future while comprehending how current technologies fit into their
corporate strategy.
Author’s Bio
Nathasit Gerdsri is a Ph.D. candidate in System Sciences/Engineering Management in the Department of Engineering and Technology Management (ETM), Portland State University. His areas of interest include strategic technology management, strategic decision making, project management, and international management. He has completed two master’s degrees in engineering and technology management as well as mechanical engineering. Nathasit joined Intel Corp. as a graduate intern during the summers of 2001 and 2002. Nathasit is a member of the Omega Rho International Honor Society and the Honor Society of Phi Kappa Phi.
Copyright ©Technology Management Newsletter, 2004
